EU energy end-uses analysis and 2050 Low-Carbon scenarios - part VII - KEP energy Magazine - KEP energy

The carried-out analysis shows that, from a macrosectorial and demand side point of view, during the 2000-2010 period the final energy demand configuration in the EU remained almost unchanged. Furthermore, from a supply side point of view, it shows that, during the same period, a fuel-switching from oil to coal and gas happened, and an end-uses electrification happened. Instead the RES penetration progressed at low growth rate.

The EU is committed to cut its GHG emissions in 2050 of 80-95% in comparison to 1990. The currently implemented measures, aimed to achieve the “20-20-20” targets, are ambitious but not enough to reach the EU energy sector decarbonization, because in 2050 they allow a 40% GHG emissions cut in comparison to 1990. As foresight in the “Impact Assessment” document, developed to explain the “Energy Roadmap 2050” strategy, it is necessary a deep modification of the EU energy sector configuration, pointing to: energy efficiency, RES, nuclear, CCS. This deep modification directly affects the final energy demand: the overall absolute value should decrease, and the electricity and the RES should become the main supply energy carriers. The final energy demand reduction is, together with the fuel-switching from fossil fuels to RES, one of the main cards available to the EU to influence the global energy market and to ensure the supply security in the medium and long term. In the households and services sectors a thermal final energy demand decrease and an electric final energy demand increase are foreseen. The progressive end-uses electrification is aligned with the growth trend of electric end-uses, that is appliances and air-conditioning, mostly in the Mediterranean Europe. Also, it is aligned with the aim of exceed beyond the 20% in 2020 the RES share in gross final energy consumption, until to reach a 50% share in 2050. This aim is function of an electrical-RES widespread, mostly due to photovoltaics and onshore/offshore wind capacity installations.

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